Plastic Surgery Research Council
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PSRC 60th Annual Meeting

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Plastic Surgery - Quo Vadis? Current Trends And Future Projections Of Aesthetic Plastic Surgical Procedures In The United States Of America
P. Niclas Broer, M.D. Ph.D.1, Sabrina Juran, M.Sc.2.
1Bogenhausen Teaching Hospital Technical University Munich, Germany, München, Germany, 2United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), New York, NY, USA.

PURPOSE:
Aesthetic plastic surgery has witnessed a steady growth over the past. The objective of this study is to evaluate past trends regarding aesthetic surgeries in the USA and to project future changes in such procedures. The results aim to alert the medical community about these trends in order to plan and prepare in advance.
METHODS:
Cosmetic surgery statistics from 1997 to 2012 from the American Society for Aesthetic Plastic Surgery were analyzed by sex, age and ethnic group. Then, utilizing the national population projections from the U.S. Census Bureau based on the 2010 census, two projection scenarios of the expected number of aesthetic plastic surgery procedures by 2030 were generated, based on the assumption of the occurrence and non-occurrence of another economic crisis during this time period of similar degree to the crisis that set in in 2007.
RESULTS:
Based on trends in procedures over the past years and the changing age and ethnic structure of the U.S. population, in the absence of an economic crisis, aesthetic procedures are expected to grow from 1,688,694 in 2012 to 3,847,929 by 2030. Should another economic crisis of a similar degree occur, procedures would only increase to 2,086,994 over the same time. Since the age distribution of the patient population, preferences for specific procedures according to age will also influence, and thus are reflected in, future demand. Further, the ethnic profile of the patient population will be altered as well, with 32% of all procedures being performed on patients other than Caucasians by 2030.
CONCLUSION:
Demand for aesthetic plastic surgical procedures is expected to continue to grow, with its future path heavily depending on the economic performance at the macro level as well as the changing population dynamics of the US population. This study breaks new ground since it is the first non-profit effort to analyze trends in, and project future demand for, such procedures in the United States of America, with a time horizon up to 2030.


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